Buy Valium No Prescription » Are we heading for a Cameron/Clegg coalition?

RSS: Post | Comment

Twitter

capbyrne: It's wet. It's grey. It's cold. Is it still summer?
capbyrne: And no goddam wireless network! I'm going back to Moscow>:O
capbyrne: Clapham Junction is one of the biggest in the world with a gazillion lines. So why when a train breaks down do all trains to waterloo ha ...

Are we heading for a Cameron/Clegg coalition?

Posted Colin Byrne on March 3rd, 2008 | Filed under Current Affairs, Politics, Public Affairs

With US and Russian politics making the news at the moment, it's back to Britpol with the latest briefing from my friends at WS Public Affairs: In a recent interview with the Financial Times, new Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg signalled that he would be willing to support a minority Conservative Government after the next General Election. As a range of opinion polls has consistently indicated the increased likelihood of a hung parliament, the Liberal Democrat party may be well placed to decide the make-up of the next Government. This week’s Knowledgeshop explores what a Tory-Lib Dem pact might look like, and what may need to be conceded between these new-found friends. Jon McLeod Chairman of Public Affairs Weber Shandwick The new Liberal Democrat leader surprised Westminster with recent affirmations that he would consider backing the Conservatives, provided David Cameron proposes genuinely "liberal" reforms. In his interview with the Financial Times earlier this month, Mr Clegg explained "I don't care who produces a more liberal document for government. If it is more liberal then, of course, I would be interested to look at it." The first-past-the-post electoral system is stacked against the Conservatives. Despite Gordon Brown's recent troubles surrounding Labour Party funding, the nationalisation of Northern Rock, and the worrying forecast for the global economy, it is reasonably likely that our next General Election will result in a hung parliament. There are no set procedures for a hung parliament and the election of one presents an array of possibilities. Having failed to secure a majority at a General Election, a Prime Minister may choose to resign immediately (as Baldwin did in 1929), stay in office to negotiate a coalition (as Heath did in our most recent example of a hung parliament in 1974) or wait to have his fate decided by Parliament on the motion on loyal address in reply to the Queen’s Speech (as chosen by Baldwin in 1923). Theoretically a Prime Minister is entitled to remain in office until defeated by a vote of no confidence. Therefore where an election results in a hung parliament, with the opposition party receiving the greatest number of seats, the Prime Minister may still attempt to form a coalition government, despite no longer being leader of the party with the largest presence in the Commons. If a coalition could not successfully be formed it is likely that he would quickly be defeated in a vote of no confidence, and be forced to step down, therefore in most cases the Prime Minister would resign and the leader of the opposition party would begin negotiations to form a coalition government. Ultimately when a Prime Minister resigns or loses a vote of no confidence, it is the Queen who holds the power to determine his successor. In the first instance negotiations would begin between parties. Should a coalition be agreed upon quickly, protocol suggests that the Queen would support this. However, if negotiations are not resolved promptly, the Queen will take advice from the leaders of all parties, her Private Secretary and in some circumstances the outgoing Prime Minister, to determine the leader most able to form a stable government. There are too many variables to consider the exact structure of a Tory-Lib Dem agreement at this stage, but could a deal even be reached? Probably not. Any potential agreement made between Cameron and Clegg looks likely to be based on a more ad-hoc understanding between the two parties, rather than a formal alliance. If a hung parliament is the outcome of our next General Election, and no formal coalition is formed, the minority government would have to take business through the Commons on a case by case business – politics con gusto italiano. Natural progression or a U-turn in the Liberal Democrats’ ideology? In the event of a hung parliament, we have to ask what a deal brokered between Cameron and Clegg would look like, and is it even a realistic possibility? After the departure of Sir Menzies Campbell, the Liberal Democrats have now, for the first time in decades, elected a leader who is prepared to do business with the Conservatives. This has not come without criticism. "Cameron Lite", as Clegg has been dubbed by some commentators, has been criticised for allegedly U-turning on Liberal Democrat ideology. However, the basic alignment of British politics has been shifting. In his fight for the centre ground, Cameron has worked hard to transform his party’s image. The Conservatives are dealing with issues that traditionally would not have seen the light of day under the ‘old’ Tories; just take the phrase “Vote Blue, Go Green” for example. Under Cameron, the softer focus Tory party has taken a more civil libertarian line on some justice and freedom issues, aligning it more closely with the traditional policies of the Lib Dems. But the Liberal Democrat membership remains deeply anti-Tory though and Clegg may well face internal opposition if he does attempt to broker a deal with the Tories. In December, YouGov asked 678 party members about possible coalition deals should the next election produce a hung parliament. 70% said they would be willing to consider a Lib-Lab coalition, with 26% opposing it ‘under any circumstances’. Compare this to 52% who were willing to consider a Lib-Con deal, but 44% opposing it out of hand - Clegg may have some convincing to do within his party. Where the commonalities lie Not only are the two parties aligning, their leaders have much in common too. The two young politicians are currently at the forefront of British politics, with their respective parties pinning high hopes on them for their revival. Both men are trying to shake off their public schoolboy labels and project a more all encompassing image; positioning themselves as modern men, with relaxed outlooks on life and grounded beliefs in progressive, free markets. In terms of policy, the similarities between the two men and their ideals continue. Clegg's recently announced priorities directly mirror those identified by Cameron. These include a focus on civil liberties, education reforms, the environment and more local decision-making. Rhetorically, both Cameron and Clegg prioritise the environment, and talk of social justice, devolving power to people, and of "liberalism" being the future of British politics. Whilst the Liberal Democrats still espouse the concept of redistribution, both parties are currently advocating free-market reforms to public services, targeted tax cuts, and incentives to encourage green behaviour. What might stand in the way of a deal? Despite these increasing similarities, the Tories and the Liberal Democrats remain two independent parties with individual identities, and as such any arrangement made between Cameron and Clegg will not be simple. Take the broad issue of Europe for example: here the parties have fundamental differences. Clegg’s comment in The Guardian last Monday, highlights their contrasting views: "If you're pro-European, like I am, you're accused of being a sell-out. If you're anti-European, like most of the Conservative party, you're accused of being a headbanger." Even areas where they have recently been in agreement may prove to be contentious. Take green issues as an example. Both Cameron and Clegg have agreed this is a policy priority for their parties. The Lib Dems have really run with this, combining their fiscal policies with their green ambitions and pledge to tax middle and lower-income families less and shift the burden of tax onto pollution. The Liberal Democrats are prepared to pursue more radical environmental policies – a strategy which may well be losing rather than winning votes for the party with the British tendency to shy away from anything that might infringe on their lifestyle. Though Cameron has worked to make the Conservatives the ‘green’ party, his environmental policies look to be less aggressive and he may be forced to push back on vote-losing green measures. Another sticking point will be proportional representation (PR). The Liberal Democrats have always strongly advocated PR, seeking to reform the electoral system and address the dominance of the two-party system. The party’s price for any formal coalitions is support for electoral reform. In contrast, the two major parties have always found it more advantageous to stick with the first-past-the-post system. The Conservatives are unlikely to accept any demands for PR, reducing the likelihood of a formal coalition. Would any co-operation work? With the benefit of hindsight, one could argue that coalitions and cross-party pacts are not suited to our political system. Take the most recently formed coalition governments in Wales for example. A Labour/Lib Dem coalition was formed in the devolved parliament in 2000 and has since been replaced. At the Lib Dem conference last Monday, Nick Clegg attacked the previous partners for achieving little more than high poverty rates – not a shining example of coalition governments working well. Siding with the Tories may even be a dangerous route to take for Clegg and could lose him seats. Often suspicious of coalitions, voters may object to the concept of “Vote Clegg, get Cam”. Strategically, the Liberal Democrats may decide to join forces with the Tories, but the apparently harmonious relationship could prove to be unsustainable. The Liberal Democrats political divergence may be accentuated in this kind of set up and one could even argue that such a move could be the breaking of the party, not the making of it. But who is to say Clegg isn’t simply bluffing to strengthen his bargaining power with Labour? The Liberal Democrats are well placed to influence the outcome of our next election, and Clegg would do well to hold his cards close to his chest. If Clegg does intend to “back the Tories” he had better start building relationships with Andrew MacKay and George Osborne, who are sure to be involved in the allocation of possible Lib Dem seats at the Tory Cabinet table. Having built a powerbase through the party and currently serving as Shadow Home Secretary, Chris Huhne would be very keen for a place but brighter young stars such as Jeremy Brown and Julia Goldsworthy may come to the fore. The target for Clegg personally will be a senior ministerial position, within the Ministry of Justice, responsible for… you guessed it, electoral reform. We watch with interest to see Clegg’s next move on this. Weber Shandwick is the UK's leading public affairs consultancy. For more information please visit our website: http://www.webershandwick.co.uk/public/. (No WS Public Affairs bulletin may be reproduced without permission) © Weber Shandwick 2008

Twitter

Categories

Archives

Blogroll

Are we heading for a Cameron/Clegg coalition?

Posted Colin Byrne on March 3rd, 2008 | Filed under Current Affairs, Politics, Public Affairs

Leave a Comment

syracuse university summer program in arquitecture Buy Autodesk Maya Unlimited 2009 For Mac (1 Dvd) Download

cincinnati state culinary program Buy Curious Labs Poser 6.0 (1 Cd) Download

free 747 flight game download Buy SPSS Clementine 11.1 Multilanguage (1 Cd) Download

free lionel richie mp3 downloads Buy Drafix Pro Landscape 11.2 (3 Cds) Download

kid pix download for windows Buy Xara Xtreme Pro 4.0.4966 DL Download

download t-mobile wing start up cd Buy OReilly Dreamweaver CS3 The Missing Manual Jun 2007 EBook Download

rock rhythms for guitar download Buy Sound Burst Ethnosphere VSTi 1.1 Download

software carpentry version Buy Autodesk Maya Unlimited 8.5 (1 Dvd) Download

hentai downloads to your itunes Buy Bobcad-Cam 21.2 Download

free moblie software Buy Apple Logic Studio 8.0 For Mac (4 Dvds) Download

download motorola l6 drivers for windows Buy OnOneSoftware Intellihance Pro 4.2 For Adobe Photoshop Download

vlan player download Buy Cakewalk Sonar 7.02 Producer Edition (1 Dvd) Download

forensic science masters program in georgia Buy Red Giant Trapcode Particular 1.5.1 For Adobe After Effects Download

software stores in rockford Buy SWiSHMax 1.0.2006.02.01 Download

free don henley downloads Buy ANSYS CFX 10.0 Download

avery lable pro download Buy Adobe Photoshop CS3 (1 Cd) Download

dragonballz download episodes Buy AutoCAD 2009 X64 (1 Dvd) Download

denver inpatient tratment programs Buy Muvee AutoProducer 6.1.4.15 Download

cnc engraving programs Buy Steinberg Groove Agent 2 (1 Cd) Download

joyce meyer free download Buy Alias Piping Solutions I-VIEW 2.40 Download

pharmacy detox programs australia Buy Adobe Illustrator10 For Mac Download

something your forgot lil wayne download Buy Delcam ArtCAM Pro 9.021 (1 Cd) Download

yahoo mic lockers downloads Buy Codegear Rad Studio Delphi 2007 (2 Dvds) Download

software associazioni sportive Buy Adobe Creative Suite For MAC (2 Cds) Download

pink velvet direct download Buy Graitec Advance Steel 7.1 Download

budding in animal viruses Buy Mathematica 6.0 For Mac (1 Cd) Download

downey recreationa and programs Buy Ahead Nero 9.0.9.4 Multilanguage (1 Cd) Download

rafter program Buy Pathtrace EdgeCAM 11.5 (1 Cd) Download

crackdown xbox live download Buy Adobe Soundbooth CS3 1.0 (1 Cd) Download

celtic knot software Buy Scanvec Amiable Enroute 3.2 Download

download memphis belle Buy Fruity Loops Studio 6.0 Producer Edition Download

wolfenstein 3-d free game download websites Buy Mackichan Scientific Workplace 5.5 Download

free propellerhead software for download Buy QuickTime Pro 7.0.2 Incl ITunes FINAL RETAIL Multilanguage Download

download bible explorer v 3 premium Buy Punch Home Design Architectural Series 4000 8.0 Download

scsi virus scan boot Buy Step 7 Micro Win 4.0.3 Multilanguage Download

the babysitter 6 digital download Buy Applied Accoustics String Studio VS 1 VST DX 1.0 Download

rn scholarship programs in florida Buy Charles Dye Mix It Like A Record (Second Dvd) Download

download aol 9.0 beta Buy MecSoft RhinoCAM Pro For Rhino 4 V1 0 WiN32 Download

hilary duff wake up download Buy Eurosystems CoCut Pro 4X3 V13.1.10 Multilanguage (1 Cd) Download

download weird clip 3gp video Buy Macromedia Dreamweaver MX 2004 7.0 For Mac Download

bim cad software Buy ABB ROBOTSTUDIO FOR IRC5 V.5.06 (1 Cd) Download

pccillin antivirus review Buy Adobe After Effect Pro 7.0 For Mac (1 Dvd) Download

vw rabbit manual download Buy Micrografx Picture Publisher 10 Pro (3 Cds) Download

imposter software Buy Mercury QuickTest Professional 9.0.0.0.2462 Download

mst3k download Buy Abaqus 6.7 Win32 (2 Cds) Download

download rescue me rihanna Buy SPSS 14.0 Download

software for removing drum tracks Buy SolidCAM 2006 R10 SP9 For SolidWorks Download

free psychometric downloads Buy Adobe Photoshop Lightroom 1.0 Download

download episodes of married with children Buy Apple Final Cut Studio 2.0 For Mac Dvd4 (1 Dvd) Download

2004 turbotax software Buy Realviz Stitcher Unlimited 5.6 Download

beneath a steel sky download Buy Adobe Acrobat 6.0 Professional Download

download bitlord torrent Buy Autodesk Civil 3D 2008 (1 Dvd) Download

download ashley tisdale music video Buy AutoDesk AutoSketch 9 (1 Cd) Download

new olympic torch virus Buy 3D Studio MAX 8.0 (1 Dvd) Download

what is coxsackie virus Buy MathCAD 13.0 Enterprise Edition (1 Cd) Download

windows xp royale noir download Buy Civil Designer 6.4.R12 Download

va work-study program 40 Buy Acronis True Image Enterprise Server 9.1.3534 Download